macroeconomic review of Russia: april 2017

This article is for those who don’t have time for search in Internet of actual macro indicators, as well as for those who are just interested in. Exchange rates, rising inflation, unemployment, real wages, GDP of Russia – about all this, only the latest news and forecasts!


The average ruble rate in April remained at a stable level vs previous month. The Central Bank key rate reduction by 0.5% was already taken into account by the market, so its decline in the domestic foreign exchange market did not cause aggressive sales of the national currency.


Average monthly fx-rate in April was  56,44 RUB/USD., which is  15,4% lower than last year April.  Average May forecast is 56,44 rub per usd.


The average euro exchange rate in April was 60,46 rubles, which is 20% less than last year April. The average forecast for the May rate is 61.59 rubles per euro.,,,,,,


According to Rosstat information in April prices went up 0.3 percent after rising by 0.1 percent in March, as prices rose at a faster pace for food (0.6 percent from 0.1 percent) and services (0.2 percent from 0 percent).

YOY inflation decreased till 4,1%. According to the Central Bank’s Department of Research and Forecasting, YOY inflation may fall below 4% in the second quarter due to temporary factors, but growth may resume in the second half of the year. The KPI of the Bank of Russia is to achieve inflation of 4% by the end of 2017.,,,

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate in Russia fell at 5,4% in March. According to the Ministry of Labor, the number of unemployed citizens also declined in April. The preliminary forecast of unemployment for April is 5.3%. The Ministry of Economic Development forecasts the unemployment rate at 5.2% level till the end of 2017 .


Real Wages

Real wages in Russia increased 1.5 percent year-on-year in March of 2017, following 1,3 percent rise in February and below market expectations of 2 percent.



According to preliminary calculations by the Ministry of Economic Development, GDP of Russia in the first quarter 2017 increased by 0.4%. Thus, if Rosstat confirms the assessment of the Ministry of Economic Development, the economy in Russia will grow for the second consecutive quarter. In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised the forecast for GDP growth in Russia in 2017 to 1.4% (from 1.1% according to the previous forecast). The Ministry of Economic Development expects a 2% growth.



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