Macroeconomic review of Russia: march 2017

This article is for those who don’t have time for search in Internet of actual macro indicators, as well as for those who are just interested in. Exchange rates, rising inflation, unemployment, real wages, GDP of Russia – about all this, only the latest news and forecasts!

FX-rates

The ruble showed a fairly strong position in March, in defiance of refinancing rate of the CBR reduction. Despite of the commodity market growth, in the coming month analysts  are predicting high ruble volatility due to  geopolitical tensions in Syria.

USD:

Average monthly fx-rate in March was  58,01 RUB/USD., which is  17,6% lower than  last year March.  Average April forecast is 56,77 rub per usd. The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of the RF has lowered the forecast for the average dollar exchange rate in 2017 up to 64.4 rubles per dollar from the previously expected 67.5 rubles.

EURO:

The average euro exchange rate in March was 62 rubles, which is 20.7% less than last year March. The average forecast for the April rate is 61.85 rubles per euro.

Source:www.cbr.ru, www.economy.gov.ru,www.finam.ru, www.longforecast.com, www.apecon.ru, www.alpari.ru,

Inflation

According to Rosstat information, inflation in March fell down to a record 0.13%. This was the lowest March inflation  since 1991. A significant contribution to the slowdown of inflation was made by the strengthening of the ruble on the background of high oil prices, the continued foreign investments in Russian assets. Due to high crop in 2015-2016, agricultural stocks increased, which led to a significant slowdown in food inflation and lower prices for fruit and vegetables.

YOY inflation was 4,3%, decreased vs last month 4,6% and according to market estimations. That was the lowest index since 2012y.

Source:www.statbureau.org,www.tradingeconomics.com, www.economy.gov.ru, www.cbr.ru

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate in Russia remained unchanged at 5.6 percent in February of 2017 from the previous month and in line with market expectations. Still the highest since May 2016.  A slight decrease of unemployment was mentioned in March, but the final data will be available only at the end of April. The Ministry of Economic Development lowered the 2017 forecast of the unemployment rate to 5.2%.

Source: www.ec.europa.eu/info/index_en,www.tradingeconomics.com, www.finam.ru

Real Wages

Real wages increased 1.3 percent year-on-year, following 3.1 percent rise in January and below market expectations of 2.8 percent. It was the lowest increase since October 2016.

Source: www.gks.ru, www.traidingeconomics.com

GDP

The current state of Russian industry can be called “positive stagnation”.  According to the last estimates of domestic and foreign analysts GDP 2017  growth in Russia will be about 1-1,5%. Central Bank 1Q GDP growth forecast is 0.6%

Source: www.gks.ru, www.finmarket.ru, www.gazeta.ru

Inga

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